Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction
Spain – Primera División RFEF – Group 1 · Group 1 – 1052%126%X22%2
Our tipLugo to win52%
- Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
- BTTSYes · 54%
- Expected goals2.79
Probabilities
Pred.: Lugo to winExpected goals: 2.79 (Lugo 1.74 · Mérida AD 1.06)
Correct score
- 1:111%
- 1:011%
- 2:110%
- 2:09%
- 0:16%
- 0:06%
The chance of each exact score, most likely first.
Predictions by market
1X2Lugo to win1 52%X 26%2 22%Odds –
Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 goalsUnder 47%Over 53%Odds –
BTTSBoth teams to scoreNo 46%Yes 54%Odds –
Double chanceLugo not to lose1X 78%12 74%X2 48%Odds –
First halfFirst half: Draw1 39%X 40%2 21%Odds –
Under/Over 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUnder 23%Over 77%Odds –
Under/Over 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUnder 69%Over 31%Odds –
HT/FTLugo / Lugo1/1 32%X/1 17%X/X 15%
Correct score1:01:0 11%
Match preview
Lugo are favourites here with a 52% chance to win, against 22% for Mérida AD and 26% for a draw. At home Lugo score 2.0 goals per game on average, while Mérida AD score 1.5 away. The model expects about 2.8 goals in total. In their last five league games Lugo have won 4 and Mérida AD 3. Our pick: Lugo to win, likely score 1:0. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, both teams to score: 54%.
Form (last 5)
LugoWWWWL
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Away | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Total | 1.8 | 0.9 |
Mérida ADLWWWD
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Total | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Comparison
LugoMérida AD55%Form45%
48%Attack52%
50%Defence50%
76%Poisson24%
100%Head to head0%
100%Goals0%
57%Total42%
Head to head
Last 2 meetings
2WinsLugo0Draws
0WinsMérida ADIn the last 2 meetings, Lugo won 2, Mérida AD won none and none ended in a draw.
- 1.5Goals per match
- 0 of 2Over 2.5
- 0 of 2Both teams scored
- 03.05.2026Primera División RFEF – Group 1Mérida AD0:2Lugo
- 03.01.2026Primera División RFEF – Group 1Lugo1:0Mérida AD
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 22 |
| 2 |  UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 3 |  Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 |  Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 |  Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +6 | 13 |
| 8 |  Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 |  Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 |  CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 |  UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 |  Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly.
