Leon vs Toluca prediction
Mexico – Liga MX · Apertura – 14Probabilities
Pred.: Toluca to winExpected goals: 3.23 (Leon 1.39 · Toluca 1.84)
Correct score
- 1:110%
- 1:29%
- 0:18%
- 2:17%
- 0:27%
- 2:27%
The chance of each exact score, most likely first.
Predictions by market
1X2Toluca to win1 30%X 22%2 48%Odds 2.06 · Dafabet
Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 goalsUnder 37%Over 63%Odds 1.60 · Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to scoreNo 37%Yes 63%Odds 1.53 · Bet365
Double chanceNo draw1X 52%12 78%X2 71%Odds 1.29 · William Hill
First halfFirst half: Draw1 25%X 38%2 37%Odds 2.54 · Pinnacle
Best odds among 9 bookmakers; our probabilities use all of them, without their margins.
Match preview
Toluca are favourites away from home with a 48% chance to win, against 30% for Leon and 22% for a draw. At home Leon score 2.0 goals per game on average, while Toluca score 1.7 away. The model expects about 3.2 goals in total. In their last five league games Leon have won 2 and Toluca 1. Our pick: Toluca to win, likely score 1:2. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, both teams to score: 63%.
Form (last 5)
LeonDWDLW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Away | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Total | 1.5 | 1.3 |
TolucaWLDLD
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Away | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.2 | 1.3 |
Comparison
LeonToluca62%Form38%
50%Attack50%
56%Defence44%
45%Poisson55%
15%Head to head85%
35%Goals65%
43%Total56%
Trends
8Leon have scored in 8 matches in a row
12Toluca have scored in 12 matches in a row
5Both teams scored in 5 matches in a row of Toluca
Head to head
| 03.09.2026 | Leagues Cup | Toluca | 2:0 | Leon |
| 26.04.2026 | Liga MX | Toluca | 4:1 | Leon |
| 05.10.2025 | Liga MX | Leon | 2:4 | Toluca |
| 09.02.2025 | Liga MX | Leon | 3:3 | Toluca |
| 02.11.2024 | Liga MX | Toluca | 2:2 | Leon |
| 03.02.2024 | Liga MX | Toluca | 4:1 | Leon |
| 22.10.2023 | Liga MX | Leon | 1:0 | Toluca |
| 29.01.2023 | Liga MX | Toluca | 0:0 | Leon |
| 27.07.2022 | Liga MX | Leon | 0:1 | Toluca |
| 02.05.2022 | Liga MX | Leon | 4:4 | Toluca |
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +16 | 27 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Toluca | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +10 | 22 |
| 5 | Leon | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 20 |
| 8 |  Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | +3 | 19 |
| 10 |  Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. – Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Atlante FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 |  CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly. 18+