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Arouca vs Nacional prediction

Portugal – Primeira LigaPortugal – Primeira Liga · Regular Season – 10
AroucaArouca
NacionalNacional
· , Arouca

Probabilities

1 · 64%X · 22%2 · 14%
Pred.: Arouca to winExpected goals: 2.77 (Arouca 1.99 · Nacional 0.78)

Correct score

  1. 1:013%
  2. 2:012%
  3. 2:110%
  4. 1:110%
  5. 3:08%
  6. 3:16%

The chance of each exact score, most likely first.

Predictions by market

1X2Arouca to win1 64%X 22%2 14%Odds –
Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 goalsUnder 48%Over 52%Odds –
BTTSNot both teams to scoreNo 53%Yes 47%Odds –
Double chanceArouca not to lose1X 86%12 77%X2 36%Odds –
First halfFirst half: Arouca1 47%X 39%2 14%Odds –

Match preview

Arouca are favourites here with a 64% chance to win, against 14% for Nacional and 22% for a draw. At home Arouca score 2.0 goals per game on average, while Nacional score 1.0 away. The model expects about 2.8 goals in total. In their last five league games Arouca have won 2 and Nacional 0. Our pick: Arouca to win, likely score 1:0. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, both teams to score: 47%.

Form (last 5)

Arouca
WDLDW
Goals +Goals −
Home2.00.8
Away0.81.0
Total1.40.9
Nacional
LLLLL
Goals +Goals −
Home1.32.5
Away1.02.0
Total1.12.3

Comparison

AroucaNacional
100%
Form
0%
55%
Attack
45%
75%
Defence
25%
86%
Poisson
14%
80%
Head to head
20%
73%
Goals
27%
73%
Total
26%

Head to head

21.02.2026Primeira LigaArouca3:0Nacional
20.09.2025Primeira LigaNacional1:2Arouca
01.02.2025Primeira LigaNacional1:2Arouca
25.08.2024Primeira LigaArouca1:0Nacional
06.05.2018Segunda LigaArouca0:1Nacional
22.12.2017Segunda LigaNacional2:2Arouca
28.01.2017Primeira LigaNacional1:1Arouca
21.08.2016Primeira LigaArouca2:0Nacional
01.05.2016Primeira LigaArouca3:0Nacional
02.01.2016Primeira LigaNacional2:2Arouca

Standings

#TeamPWDLGoals+/-PtsForm
1 FC Porto880020:4+1624
2 Benfica861124:7+1719
3 Sporting CP853020:9+1118
4 Santa Clara853012:4+818
5 Arouca842211:7+414
6 GIL Vicente84228:6+214
7 Academico Viseu842211:10+114
8 Alverca832313:12+111
9 SC Braga83239:10-111
10 Estrela824214:15-110
11 Maritimo82249:14-58
12 Moreirense82248:15-78
13 Famalicao814310:11-17
14 Rio Ave82158:17-97
15 Vitória SC81255:10-55
16 Nacional81169:18-94
17 Casa Pia81163:17-144
18 Estoril80264:12-82

Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly. 18+