Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Portugal – Primeira Liga · Regular Season – 1054%124%X22%2
Our tipArouca to win54%@1.88
- Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
- BTTSYes · 52%
- Expected goals2.73
Probabilities
Pred.: Arouca to winExpected goals: 2.73 (Arouca 1.71 · Nacional 1.02)
Correct score
- 1:111%
- 1:011%
- 2:110%
- 2:010%
- 0:07%
- 0:17%
The chance of each exact score, most likely first.
Predictions by market
1X2Arouca to win1 54%X 24%2 22%Odds 1.88 · 1xBet · Value · Our chance 56% · +5%
Under/Over 2.5Over 2.5 goalsUnder 49%Over 51%Odds 1.88 · Betano
BTTSBoth teams to scoreNo 48%Yes 52%Odds 1.75 · Bet365
Double chanceArouca not to lose1X 78%12 76%X2 46%Odds 1.26 · Betano
First halfFirst half: Draw1 39%X 41%2 20%Odds 2.35 · Pinnacle
Under/Over 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUnder 24%Over 76%Odds 1.29 · Betano
Under/Over 3.5Under 3.5 goalsUnder 71%Over 29%Odds 1.38 · Pinnacle
HT/FTArouca / Arouca1/1 33%X/1 18%X/X 14%Odds 2.92 · Betano
Correct score1:01:0 11%
Match preview
Arouca are favourites here with a 54% chance to win, against 22% for Nacional and 24% for a draw. At home Arouca score 2.0 goals per game on average, while Nacional score 1.0 away. The model expects about 2.7 goals in total. In their last five league games Arouca have won 2 and Nacional 1. Our pick: Arouca to win, likely score 1:0. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, both teams to score: 52%.
Form (last 5)
AroucaDLDWW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Away | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Total | 1.3 | 0.8 |
NacionalLLLLW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Away | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Total | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Comparison
AroucaNacional73%Form27%
56%Attack44%
75%Defence25%
86%Poisson14%
80%Head to head20%
73%Goals27%
73%Total26%
Head to head
Last 10 meetings
6WinsArouca3Draws
1WinsNacionalIn the last 10 meetings, Arouca won 6, Nacional won 1 and 3 ended in a draw.
- 2.6Goals per match
- 6 of 10Over 2.5
- 5 of 10Both teams scored
- 21.02.2026Primeira LigaArouca3:0Nacional
- 20.09.2025Primeira LigaNacional1:2Arouca
- 01.02.2025Primeira LigaNacional1:2Arouca
- 25.08.2024Primeira LigaArouca1:0Nacional
- 06.05.2018Segunda LigaArouca0:1Nacional
- 22.12.2017Segunda LigaNacional2:2Arouca
- 28.01.2017Primeira LigaNacional1:1Arouca
- 21.08.2016Primeira LigaArouca2:0Nacional
- 01.05.2016Primeira LigaArouca3:0Nacional
- 02.01.2016Primeira LigaNacional2:2Arouca
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly.
