Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Portugal – Primeira Liga · Regular Season – 946%126%X28%2
Our tipAlverca to win46%@2.13✗
- Under/Over 2.5Under 2.5 · 50%
- BTTSYes · 53%
- Expected goals2.66
Probabilities
Pred.: Alverca to winExpected goals: 2.66 (Alverca 1.52 · Arouca 1.14)
Correct score
- 1:112%
- 1:011%
- 2:19%
- 2:08%
- 0:18%Final score
- 0:07%
The chance of each exact score, most likely first.
Predictions by market
1X2✗ wrongAlverca to win1 46%X 26%2 28%Odds 2.13 · 1xBet
Under/Over 2.5✓ correctUnder 2.5 goalsUnder 50%Over 50%Odds 1.93 · Pinnacle
BTTS✗ wrongBoth teams to scoreNo 47%Yes 53%Odds 1.75 · William Hill
Double chance✓ correctNo draw1X 72%12 74%X2 54%Odds 1.36 · 1xBet
First half✗ wrongFirst half: Draw1 34%X 42%2 24%Odds 2.28 · Pinnacle
Under/Over 1.5✗ wrongOver 1.5 goalsUnder 26%Over 74%Odds –
Under/Over 3.5✓ correctUnder 3.5 goalsUnder 72%Over 28%Odds –
HT/FT✗ wrongAlverca / Alverca1/1 27%X/1 16%X/X 16%
Correct score✗ wrong1:01:0 11%
Match preview
Alverca are favourites here with a 46% chance to win, against 28% for Arouca and 26% for a draw. At home Alverca score 1.3 goals per game on average, while Arouca score 0.8 away. The model expects about 2.7 goals in total. In their last five league games Alverca have won 3 and Arouca 2. Our pick: Alverca to win, likely score 1:0. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, both teams to score: 53%.
Match events
- 6′🟥 Steven Baseya
- 9′⇄ Francisco Chissumba
- 19′🟨 Jose Fontán
- 24′⚽ Taichi Fukui (Javi Sánchez)
- 45′⇄ Rayan Lucas
- 54′🟨 Pedro Santos
- 61′⇄ Pedro Santos
- 62′⇄ Dawda Camara Sankharé
- 67′⇄ Iván Barbero
- 67′⇄ Jose Fontán
- 71′🟨 Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
- 75′⇄ Davy Gui
- 75′⇄ Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
- 79′⇄ Taichi Fukui
- 79′⇄ Alfonso Trezza
Form (last 5)
AlvercaDLWWW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Away | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Total | 1.6 | 1.5 |
AroucaWDLDW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Away | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Total | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Comparison
AlvercaArouca56%Form44%
63%Attack38%
50%Defence50%
58%Poisson42%
50%Head to head50%
50%Goals50%
54%Total45%
Head to head
Last 2 meetings
1WinsAlverca0Draws
1WinsAroucaIn the last 2 meetings, Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and none ended in a draw.
- 2.0Goals per match
- 1 of 2Over 2.5
- 1 of 2Both teams scored
- 24.04.2026Primeira LigaAlverca2:1Arouca
- 14.12.2025Primeira LigaArouca1:0Alverca
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly.
