Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction
Brazil – Serie A · Regular Season – 33
Bahia02:30
Sao PauloProbabilities
Pred.: Bahia to winCorrect score: 1:0Expected goals: 2.35 (1.45 – 0.90)
Predictions by market
1X2Bahia to win1 36%X 33%2 31%Odds –
Under/Over 2.5Under 2.5 goalsUnder 58%Over 42%Odds –
BTTSNot both teams to scoreNo 55%Yes 45%Odds –
Double chanceBahia not to lose1X 69%12 67%X2 64%Odds –
First halfFirst half: Draw1 36%X 45%2 19%Odds –
Match preview
Bahia are favourites here with a 36% chance to win, against 31% for Sao Paulo and 33% for a draw. At home Bahia score 1.4 goals per game on average, while Sao Paulo score 0.7 away. The model expects about 2.4 goals in total. In their last five league games Bahia have won 2 and Sao Paulo 3. Our pick: Bahia to win, likely score 1:0. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, both teams to score: 45%.
Form (last 5)
BahiaWLLWL
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Away | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Total | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Sao PauloWLLWW
| Goals + | Goals − | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Away | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Total | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Comparison
40%Form60%
44%Attack56%
42%Defence58%
67%Poisson33%
29%Head to head71%
31%Goals69%
42%Total57%
Head to head
| 03.05.2026 | Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2:2 | Bahia |
| 26.10.2025 | Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2:0 | Bahia |
| 01.06.2025 | Serie A | Bahia | 2:1 | Sao Paulo |
| 06.11.2024 | Serie A | Bahia | 0:3 | Sao Paulo |
| 30.06.2024 | Serie A | Sao Paulo | 3:1 | Bahia |
| 30.11.2023 | Serie A | Bahia | 0:1 | Sao Paulo |
| 30.07.2023 | Serie A | Sao Paulo | 0:0 | Bahia |
| 07.11.2021 | Serie A | Bahia | 1:0 | Sao Paulo |
| 11.07.2021 | Serie A | Sao Paulo | 1:0 | Bahia |
| 29.11.2020 | Serie A | Bahia | 1:3 | Sao Paulo |
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee results. Bet responsibly. 18+